The global financial crisis worsened from September and raised doubts about the impact it would cause on Brazilian economy. Therefore, 2008 finished with different growth forecasts on the Gross National Product (GNP) for 2009. The most optimistic of them comes from the government itself. The minister of Finances, Guido Mantega, assures that it will reach and expansion of 4%.

According to him, the measures that have been taken by the government, such as the reduction of taxes to foster the production and consume, will be able to guarantee that increase. "That 4% rate is not a mere financial projection. It is a target the government proposes to follow, together with society. Brazil gathers conditions that enable us to have a delay in the acceleration of economy that is smaller than in other countries; we can minimize the impact of the international crisis", he argued.

Troubles
That forecast of 3.5% on the growth of GNP contained in the Budget is more optimistic than the one of the Central Bank, released some days after the approval of the Budgeting Bill in Congress. The Central Bank expects that Brazilian economy grow 3.2% in 2009.

The undertakers, though, forecast a smaller growth, of 2.4%. The president of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), deputy Armando Monteiro (PTB-PE), said, though, that the forecast that is apparently pessimistic should be seen in a relative form before the world reality: "PIB of the United States is dropping and all the Euro zone is struggling with a recession picture, while we are still talking about growth in Brazil, even if it is modest – that means that, in relative terms, we are doing better than the rest of the world."

Nevertheless, the rapporteur on the revenue of the 2009 Budget, Deputy Jorge Khoury (DEM-BA), is less optimistic than the minister Mantega, and reduced the growth forecast to 3.5%, in the budgeting bill. "We have been receiving information not only from domestic economy, but from the world as a whole, which lead us to believe in a period of greater trouble next year", he said.

In November, the International Monetary Fund (FMI) projected a growth of 2.2% for the global economy as a whole. For Brazil, FMI forecasts an expansion of 3% of GNP.